Opinion Polls

After John Key had just delivered a speech over the weekend predicting a 'tight and tough' election, and John Armstrong in the NZ Herald had pointed out how Labour is hitting the right notes lately, two opinion polls appear to tell another story. The 3News/Reid and One News/Colmar Brunton polls both have National up to more than 50% (a big rebound from the 42.5% in the last Roy Morgan poll), and Labour down slightly to 30% or below. Figures like that, if translated into election results, could mean National being able to govern alone, with 61 seats, assuming the minnows (ACT, United, Maori and Mana parties) all retain 1 seat each.
Based on past elections, it's unlikely, however, that such a commanding lead in the polls by the party in government will be sustained into the election itself. National's poll result is probably a halo effect from a relatively well received budget. One or two more scandalous revelations about ministerial behaviour or croneyism and National will see their polling come down again from the recent high  – and then the 'tight and tough' prediction will be looking more credible.